8 Reasons the Cavaliers Could Win the NBA Finals

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LeBron has ascended to another level in this year’s postseason. Even his loudest critics have sung his praises as he’s put the team on his back like Marshawn Lynch.

LeBron’s biggest priority is going down as the greatest to ever play the game. He knows what people are saying about this matchup. He knows nobody is giving the Cavs a chance. And he also knows that if he pulls this off—if he wills this Cleveland squad over the most loaded team of all-time—it would be far more impressive than any ring Michael Jordan ever earned.

M.J. went 6-0 in the Finals? Yeah, well LeBron led George Hill and Jeff Green over Steph Curry and Kevin Durant.

A win in this series would punctuate the greatest individual postseason performance in NBA history. Add that to LeBron’s G.O.A.T. résumé and he suddenly stacks up well with Jordan, whose supporting casts were loaded in comparison to this Cavs roster.

The Cavs shot miserably in the Eastern Conference Finals, hitting only 32 percent of their threes. They knocked down more than 10 3-pointers once in the series, which makes their comeback from an 0-2 hole all that more surprising.

Cleveland was one of the league’s best 3-point shooting teams in the regular season. The Cavs hit an average of 12 threes per game (third in the NBA) while shooting 37.2 percent (sixth).

Kevin Love and J.R. Smith are due for a regression to the mean. They’ve both shot well against GSW in the past. Love averaged 4.5 made threes in Cleveland’s two games against GSW this year, and Smith hit 3.6 per game in last year’s Finals.

If Kyle Korver stays hot and the Cavs’ other floor-spacers return to form, Golden State would likely be forced to play LeBron one-on-one—which would be less of an issue if they had their full defensive arsenal.

Golden State has remained remarkably healthy during its four Finals runs. Sure, Curry was banged up in 2016 and Iggy has missed a few games this year, but the Warriors have basically been more or less unscathed.

In comparison, their opponents have been ravaged by injuries. Houston looked firmly in command in the Western Conference Finals until Chris Paul suffered a hamstring injury. The Spurs seemed poised to give GSW a run in 2017 until Zaza Pachulia took out Kawhi Leonard. Each of Golden State’s playoff opponents in 2015 was missing its starting point guard, and the Warriors got to play a Cleveland team missing Love and Kyrie Irving in the Finals.

It seems inevitable that Golden State will lose a star in a key moment at some point, especially when you consider the heavy minutes Curry, Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are now playing. If it happens in this series, the matchup could change dramatically.

In postseason wins, the Warriors are averaging 114.6 points per game. In losses, they’re averaging 96.2.

There’s a clear trend—keep Golden State in double digits and you have a shot at winning. Lucky for Cleveland fans, the Cavs’ defense is improving at the right time.

Cleveland is surrendering 105.9 points per 100 possessions, a dramatic improvement over its 109.5 average in the regular season. The reason? Probably increased effort—but you could also argue the Cavs’ defense is better when their rotation is shortened.

Cleveland’s defense is at its best when LeBron is engaged, and LeBron is most engaged when he doesn’t need to carry the entire offensive burden—which underscores the necessity of Cleveland’s shooters returning to form.

The Celtics eclipsed 100 points only once in the final five games of the Eastern Conference Finals, and Cleveland punctuated its defensive effort by holding Boston to 79 points in Game 7. No one expects the Cavs to hold Golden State to 20 points in a quarter, but this postseason has given Cleveland fans reason for hope.

The Cavs also have a better matchup for Curry this time around (George Hill) than they have had previously (Irving). Steph’s points-per-possession rate against Irving is about twice his rate against Hill.

Many have made the argument that the Celtics are building a version of Golden State in the East. Boston trots out versatile athletes who can switch across the court and stretch the floor, and the Celtics strive to play team ball and move the rock rapidly—sounds familiar.

The argument isn’t perfect, but Cleveland got a taste of Golden State’s style of play in the conference finals—and, after much trial and error, solved it. The Celtics are far from the Warriors’ equal, but matching up with Boston will aid Cleveland heading into the Finals.

Golden State has battled apathy all season. Steve Kerr predicted his team would struggle to stay engaged, and that prediction proved to be true. The Warriors just haven’t seemed to care all that much. A Dubs assistant coach confirmed in a recent Sports Illustrated article that the team’s biggest challenge this season was “boredom.”

We all expected Golden State to switch it “on” in the playoffs, to shed its burden of boredom, but that hasn’t exactly been the case. The Warriors will dominate one night and look unmotivated the next. They haven’t had that killer instinct.

Cleveland, on the other hand, has plenty of motivation. The Cavs want to level their battle with Golden State; they don’t want to be remembered as the team that lost three of four. LeBron wants this one for his résumé. The franchise knows a win would immensely help its chances of retaining the best player of this generation.

Cleveland’s motivation is clear—can we say the same for Golden State?

This article would be incomplete if I failed to mention the 2016 Finals. The Cavs fell into a 3-1 hole against a Warriors team that had set the NBA’s record for regular-season wins. Talk about unthinkable—that comeback was unthinkable.

We all know why they pulled it off. In the final three games, LeBron averaged 36.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 3 steals, and 3 blocks per game.

Back then Cleveland had Irving and Golden State didn’t have Durant—but that doesn’t change the fact that LeBron and Cleveland have already stunned the world to defeat Golden State once.

The mental edge plays a huge role in sports, as anyone who watched the Raptors in this playoffs could attest. If the Cavs had lost three straight to the Warriors and faced this talent disparity, this series would likely be over before it started. But the Cavs have done this once before. They know with the best player alive, no team is unbeatable.

Cleveland has to lock in on defense, drain open threes, and keep it close through three quarters—then let LeBron push them over the finish line. LeBron has to go full LeBron, and he might need to go more LeBron than we’ve ever seen before. The Cavs also need some luck.

It seems impossible, but you know what Kevin Garnett once said.